Stone Looms as 2007 Casualty

A month ago, Russ Stewart wasn't a believer. Now he is:

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The trend is clear: Voter participation is shrinking, and so is Stone's vote.

In the 2004 Democratic primary, Stone, the ward Democratic committeeman, backed Mike Moses against state Representative Lou Lang (D-16). Lang won with 61.6 percent of the vote, and Moses won the 50th Ward by just 3,531-3,453. In December Stone filed 1,900 petition signatures. Clearly, Stone's organization suffers from atrophy, if not decrepitude. Also, U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9), is not endorsing Stone and is "neutral," although most of her workers in the ward are backing Brewer.

"This will be a close race," predicts state Senator Ira Silverstein (D-8), a Stone ally. In a ward with many residents living in apartments, the key will be mailings. Stone will do well in the predominantly Jewish Winston Towers precincts. His opponents must spur interest and a get a turnout in excess of 10,000.

"I'm not anti-development, but I'm convinced that zoning changes are a tradeoff and that developers are making donations to Stone," Brewer said. "That's wrong." Brewer also squawks the liberal line that "continuing apartment conversions to condominiums mean a loss of affordable housing." Added Brewer: "We must rewrite to zoning code."

My prediction: Stone admits that if he wins outright on Feb. 27, he won't get much over 50 percent of the vote. Brewer predicts he'll win a majority, which is absurd. But all this activity in the ward will spur turnout to about 10,000. Stone will come in with about 4,200 votes, Brewer with 3,500, Dolar with 1,800, and Aftab with 500. That means an April runoff, a low turnout, and a flood of outsiders descending on the ward. Stone could lose.

What is interesting about Stewart's analysis is that in December he was predicting just the opposite:

Berny Stone's West Rogers Park ward is melting pot of cultures and demographics. But Stone, age 79, is a much-beloved icon, winning with 76 percent of the vote in 2003 and running unopposed in 1999. He could be vulnerable to a well funded liberal or an ethnic candidate who could unite the ward's large Indian, Pakistani, Chinese and Vietnamese population. But none of his 2007 foes, Naisy Dolar, Salmon Aftab or Greg Brewer, has that capability. Stone will win his 10th term easily.

People are noticing. As one commenter repeats, the battle is joined! It's a dogfight. You already know how I feel: May the best man (Brewer) win!