Sunday, January 28, 2007

Stone Looms as 2007 Casualty

A month ago, Russ Stewart wasn't a believer. Now he is:

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The trend is clear: Voter participation is shrinking, and so is Stone's vote.

In the 2004 Democratic primary, Stone, the ward Democratic committeeman, backed Mike Moses against state Representative Lou Lang (D-16). Lang won with 61.6 percent of the vote, and Moses won the 50th Ward by just 3,531-3,453. In December Stone filed 1,900 petition signatures. Clearly, Stone's organization suffers from atrophy, if not decrepitude. Also, U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9), is not endorsing Stone and is "neutral," although most of her workers in the ward are backing Brewer.

"This will be a close race," predicts state Senator Ira Silverstein (D-8), a Stone ally. In a ward with many residents living in apartments, the key will be mailings. Stone will do well in the predominantly Jewish Winston Towers precincts. His opponents must spur interest and a get a turnout in excess of 10,000.

"I'm not anti-development, but I'm convinced that zoning changes are a tradeoff and that developers are making donations to Stone," Brewer said. "That's wrong." Brewer also squawks the liberal line that "continuing apartment conversions to condominiums mean a loss of affordable housing." Added Brewer: "We must rewrite to zoning code."

My prediction: Stone admits that if he wins outright on Feb. 27, he won't get much over 50 percent of the vote. Brewer predicts he'll win a majority, which is absurd. But all this activity in the ward will spur turnout to about 10,000. Stone will come in with about 4,200 votes, Brewer with 3,500, Dolar with 1,800, and Aftab with 500. That means an April runoff, a low turnout, and a flood of outsiders descending on the ward. Stone could lose.


What is interesting about Stewart's analysis is that in December he was predicting just the opposite:

Berny Stone's West Rogers Park ward is melting pot of cultures and demographics. But Stone, age 79, is a much-beloved icon, winning with 76 percent of the vote in 2003 and running unopposed in 1999. He could be vulnerable to a well funded liberal or an ethnic candidate who could unite the ward's large Indian, Pakistani, Chinese and Vietnamese population. But none of his 2007 foes, Naisy Dolar, Salmon Aftab or Greg Brewer, has that capability. Stone will win his 10th term easily.


People are noticing. As one commenter repeats, the battle is joined! It's a dogfight. You already know how I feel: May the best man (Brewer) win!

15 Comments:

At January 28, 2007 9:26 AM, Blogger JS in the 50th said...

As you might have noticed, I've shut down comments for the weekend. It seemed that things were getting out of hand, and I didn't have the time to watch over them, especially on the Shabbat. I will post all comments tomorrow.

 
At January 28, 2007 4:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why does Aldertrack have Naisy Dolar so high or whatever their ranking system is? Is it because she would be an upset? or what criteria do they chose to determine this?

please answer

 
At January 28, 2007 7:29 PM, Blogger JS in the 50th said...

I suspect that her supporters are putting their money where their heart is. It would be better if they'd just contribute directly to her. I'm not quite sure what kind of market they have going, so I'm in no position to explain it.

 
At January 28, 2007 8:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone can sign up on aldertrack and it doesn't cost anything. You just sign up and buy up all the stock of the candidate you want. I suspect that Naisy's supporters are doing that. They are quite a cheerleading team, you know!

 
At January 29, 2007 12:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

js how come you haven't commented on dolar's endorsements? is anything backing aftab?

 
At January 29, 2007 1:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting to read Russ Stewarts comments on the 50th. Aside from the specific candidate totals, I think most campaigns would have the same numbers break down (not specific candidate totals). His article should not be anything the candidates did not already know.

Every campaign knows, in a bitter Chicago Winter, mailings (and lots of them) will be a big factor.

The difference is going to be which campaign takes advantage.

Campaign reports are due Wednesday 1/31/07. If a candidate has raised or spent $10,000 durring the reporting period, they are required by law to file their report on line.

If you can not view the candidates report on line they are either breaking the law or don't have enough money to win the election.

http://www.elections.il.gov/
(copy and paste that link, then navigate the site for the info you want)

posted by:
Mad Dog

 
At January 29, 2007 8:02 AM, Blogger JS in the 50th said...

You must have missed it:

http://fightinthe50th.blogspot.com/2007/01/dolar-wins-fop-endorsement.html

Naisy's newsletter announced she got the IVI-IPO endorsement, as well as the endorsements of several people outside the city of Chicago, as well. But I've already written about those.

 
At January 29, 2007 4:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

since russ stewert is never right STONE will win and when STONE wins the 50thward will have said no to outside carpetbaggers,hate-mongers,and unseen outside interests pushing at least two opposition candidates

 
At January 30, 2007 1:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Alright! CAPSMAN found the capslock button HORRAY!!!!

 
At January 31, 2007 8:59 AM, Anonymous Justin said...

Anonymous:

Aftab is endorsed by Illinois Committee for Honest Government, Northwest Side Democratic
Organization, Commissioner Frank Avila, a Democrat,Commissioner Tony Peraica, a Republican and Commissioner Rouhy Shalabi.
posted by:
Justin

 
At February 01, 2007 12:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I understand that even WInston Towers people maybe more in support of Naisy. I also heard that Naisy went to school at Whitney Young which is in CHICAGO. I also understand that she attended college in ILLINOIS.

 
At February 01, 2007 10:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Justin:

The Northwest Side Democratic Organization does not endorse Sal Aftab or any candidate in the 50th Ward at this point.

www.frankcoconate.com

Look on the left hand collum and scroll down, you will see the 50th Ward and no candidate endorcement.

Frank & the NWSDO have worked with Sal and may indeed support him, however, there is no listing on the site yet.

posted by:
Mad Dog

 
At February 01, 2007 10:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh I must have been mistaken. The NWSDO does endorse Sal Aftab. Just go to the web site , it's right there, I was wrong, I appologize.

Posted by:
Mad Dog

 
At February 02, 2007 2:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

mad dog ur a punk!

 
At February 02, 2007 8:50 PM, Anonymous Justin said...

Aftab is also endorsed by Pete Dagher (Clinton's White house Advisor 1993-98)

 

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