Daley and Stone's Precinct Captains
There's trouble. Right here in River City. Yep, we've got trouble.
Ald. Stone's biggest problem going into the run-off is that Mayor Daley will not be on the ballot. That doesn't mean that Stone will be pulling down those Daley/Stone signs down anytime soon. What it does mean is that Stone's precinct captains won't be as enthusiastic about working towards the run-off as they were in February.
If you listen to many of Stone's precinct captains, they aren't happy with either the 50th Ward Democratic organization or with Stone's campaign. For many of them, their loyalty lies with Daley, not Stone. (They may be embarrassed by Stone, too!)
Others have personal problems that make doing their job more difficult. Some are just plain new to the job. What Daley brought to the ticket was a fall-back position for many of these precinct captains: while they might not care to help Stone, they did want to help Daley. The Mayor has always depended on big numbers coming from out of the Northside to counter any trouble he might have in the Southside wards.
The question is, can Stone motivate the 50th Ward precinct captains to work as hard for him as they worked for Daley? Can he get them to work hard enough to beat the highly-motivated Dolar precinct captains?
Stone won just a bare majority of precincts (24 out of 45). Several of them (24 in particular) that are typically stronger machine precincts he just barely won. And others (7 and 13, for example) he lost outright.
Berny Stone is looking at his last days as the 50th Ward alderman. We have seen how he acts when he is threatened. But now there is blood in the water. And Stone's support is a lot softer than anyone previously believed.
Labels: Naisy Dolar Alderman Election Chicago 50th Ward Bernard Berny Stone
posted by Jay @ 3:23 PM
9 comments
9 Comments:
Is there a site I can go to for precinct by precint totals? I'm very curious to see how the ones my DFA group canvassed turned out. I know at least one of them (35 I think) went 1. Brewer, 2. Dolar, 3. Stone.
DO YOU ACTUALLY BELIEVE THAT?? LOL
50th Ward election results by precinct
A relative of mine who work for a Political polling firm out east and who surf the web for a living alerted me to a posting which I was mentioned. Once I found the posting, I came across this blog. I am not a blogger but I spent the last few days looking over all of these entries.
First I was raised by my parents in the neighborhood to always be involved in community or charitable work. I was holding back yard carnivals for MD when I went to Rogers school and later first worked on John Anderson 1980 Presidential Campaign. I also learned to add on to what my parents taught me which was to put you money where you mouth is.
Everyone has the right to exercise their political right. That means everyone. Everyone has the right to review public records. That means everyone, However no was has the right to distort public records by adding meaningless allegations.
A certain poster on this blog and other similar sites seem to think that American citizens who work for governmental agencies don’t have the right to politic or donate to officials of their choice. Some how since a person works for a local government and makes donations to officials they support is an illegal diversion of tax dollars to certain campaigns.
This poster went though State campaign donation reports and pulled out city employees who donated to Bernard Stone. What this poster did not do was look to see what other campaigns they may have donated to at the state or federal level. In fact this person has no idea how much money the people he listed give to other political cause or charitable causes. But he can just attack whom ever he wants.
Further like this poster, I to go though these same records to find potential donors for the three charitable campaigns that I work on. In facts I love tax day as all of my charitable donations help reduce my taxes (not political donations). However I don’t publish thier names and addresses all over the internet.
So I hope this poster gets the message in a nice way. And play nice please.
Thanks for the link. The precinct I was thinking of was actually 21 not 35 (although Brewer did pretty well there too).
Dolar's biggest problem is likely to be a drop in voter turnout. As the challenger, she will suffer more than Stone. Remember, Dolar needs to increase her vote total, while Stone only needs to limit his drop-off.
In 2003 there were four aldermanic runoff elections. Voter turnout dropped substantially in three out of four. (The 1st Ward was unusual in that turnout increased dramatically--not likely to happen here.) In those three races, the incumbents' totals increased, while the opposition vote decreased.
Aftab's voters are the most likely to stay away or vote for Stone. Brewer's voters were highly motivated and will probably turn out to vote for Dolar. Dolar may have benefited from a large number of undecided voters swayed by newspaper endorsements. These voters have no strong motivation to turn out and vote in the runoff.
In order to win, Dolar will need a well organized get out the vote effort--something she lacked in February. It's possible, but it won't be easy. Without a major change in the Dolar campaign, I predict a turnout of 8000 with Stone winning 4500 to 3500.
Interesting comments thus far on this thread.
I have also predicted a lower voter turnout in the April election. The media will be more than likely focusing on suburban races like Melrose Park, and only mentioning City run-offs as an after thought.
Dolar is gonna have to work her tail off to get the anit-Stone voter tothe polls. Bernie's voters have been voting for him for decades and they know when to vote.
Early voting will be a major major key if Dolar is to win. She needs to get her voters to the polls early, lock in their vote as soon as possible.
Sal Aftab can have an influence in this campaign with-in his muslim community. If things are done correctly, the turnout in the muslim community could actually increase.
For now the focus should be on voter registration and unity.
Dave "MadDog" Madlener
"In order to win, Dolar will need a well organized get out the vote effort--something she lacked in February."
Umm, were you in the 50th on election day? Dolar had something like 100 people on the streets by 9am. Yellow hats were in almost every single precinct.
What she has to do is expand her GOTV operations, absorb Brewer's and Aftab's votes, and make inroads into Stone's bases in the senior and Jewish populations. It appears Brewer's supporters are already crossing over. If the "Anyone But Stone" vote is as widespread as it seemed to be, she has decent chances despite the way the odds look on paper.
Let's watch what happens in the next few weeks.
We need to build on the momentum of February 27. Naisy is motivated, Stone's campaign does not have the energy or the people power. I encourage everyone who wants to see Berny retire to do what you can to help Naisy, whether its money, time or your vote. Check out the new video from Naisy's campaign: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXcx71XWfbU
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