Stone-Dolar Debate Scheduled?

There is an unconfirmed report that Ald. Stone and Naisy Dolar will debate on March 21st at 7:30. Dolar's website has yet to issue a News Release for this, which is surprising. And Stone may still not show up, which would surprise no one.

UPDATE:
Details (from link above):
Date: Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Time: 7:00 - 9:00pm (doors open at 7:00pm, event begins promptly at 7:30pm)
Location: Daniel Boone Elementary School Auditorium, 6710 N. Washtenaw, Chicago

The forum will be moderated by Thom Clark from Community Media Workshop. The event is sponsored by the West Rogers Park Community Organization and co-sponsored by Organization of the Northeast. For more information, call (773) 761-8274 or send an e-mail to questions@wrpco.org.

Precinct Captains, Absentees and Turnout

One commenter, presumably a Stone precinct captain, mentions that he/she is out there passing out absentee ballot requests for the April 17th run-off. This is a classic machine tactic that didn't work so well last time. Stone supporters gathered 2,000 absentee ballot requests for the February election, but only about one-quarter of those were voted absentee. More than 500 votes, presumably for Stone, but 500+ is not 2,000.

My dad was interested in my question whether 50th Ward precinct captains were more loyal to Daley (who controls the jobs) than Stone. He ran his own analysis of the percentage of Stone votes to Daley votes precinct by precinct. I think he was surprised by what he found.


Dad found 13 precincts where it is clear that their precinct captains are loyal to Stone first, and effective in what they are doing: 34, 31, 12, 16, 39, 38, 11, 40, 14, 30, 45, 44 and 33. Ald. Stone received 2004 votes from these precincts. Precincts 25, 10, 41, 27, 5, 3, 23, 24, 1, 28, 17, 18, 26 and 2 all had above average performance when Daley votes are compared to the number of Stone votes in those precincts. They accounted for abother 1925 votes for Stone. There is no way to know why these precincts, all but two of which had a majority of votes for Stone, gave a significant amount of more votes to Daley than to Stone. What we can say is that the precinct captains in the first set of precincts were more effective in delivering voters to Stone than those in the rest of the ward.

But there's another way of looking at this. When you compare the precincts where Stone won more than 50% of the vote to those where he did not, you see that the Stone majority precincts had a higher turnout percentage than those that didn't (45.9% to 39.65%). Conventional wisdom says that run-off elections always see a tapering off in turnout. The question becomes, which side is more motivated: Stone's or Dolar's?

We will see how motivated Dolar is when she files her next disclosure. We will see how convincing she is if and when SEIU and the CFL get behind her and throw their considerable resources into this race. And we will know how united the anti-Stone forces are when we see Brewer and Aftab signs replaced by Dolar signs, and pictures of the three candidates together. The organizational advantage rests with Stone. Momentum rests with Dolar. At least it did, until they paused the campaign. Now it's anybody's guess!

Stone's Thugs Steal Dolar Signs

It's begun. Stone's thugs have turned their attention to Naisy Dolar, and now there are wide reports of her signs having been stolen across the ward.

This can't be a surprise. Stone's thugs did this to another candidate in February. There are eyewitness reports that say the person who stole the signs (in February) was the same person delivering Stone literature the previous day.

Ald. Stone thinks nothing of sending one of his thugs onto your property and stealing your property. Stone's cavalier attitude about sign-stealing (everyone does it, he says) exposes his real attitude about the people and private property in the 50th Ward. Stone thinks we belong to him! Private property? That's his, too. We are only serfs in his kingdom. We only have the rights he allows us to have.

Private property? We don't need no stinkin' private property in the Stone Age!

This is the same attitude that allows him to want his daughter to succeed him. Divine rights are inherited. Stone thinks of the 50th Ward as his to do with what he wants. He has no interest in bettering the 50th, only in concentrating power into his hands. In his mind, that makes it better. Not for us, but maybe for him.

Remember that Stone is only trying to intimidate us. These crimes demonstrate his sense of vulnerability, his desperation, his recognition that he may lose. The more he feels threatened, the more he will employ mob-like tactics. Berny Stone is not interested in a fair election, he's interested in a coronation.

Time for thugs like Stone to go.

Introspection

Some interesting comments on the previous post. One commenter naturally assumes that because I am anti-Stone, I must be pro-Dolar. Untrue. My problems with Ald. Stone are equally problems with Naisy Dolar. Dolar has repeatedly used race and talk about oppression as the basis for her run. I'm tired of ethnic politics and divide and conquer tactics in the 50th Ward. She seems to think that because it worked for Stone, it must be the only thing she can do.

Dolar's problem is that she doesn't think better of us. One class or ethnicity must be up while the other is pushed down. If that's our choice, there is really no choice. I oppose all candidates who play this game. There is not much point in "rallying my readers" against Stone when the choice is mini-Stone. The point is to break the cycle of oppression, not change the oppressor.

Another commenter wonders if I didn't underestimate Dolar. I don't think so. I think most people have underestimated Berny Stone. Stone chose Dolar to be his opponent, and we can only speculate why. I have to question whether Dolar had anything to do with her place in the run-off.

Instead of re-writing history, let's remember that a week before the election, Stone ratcheted up his anti-Semitism gambit. In more ways than one, he called Greg Brewer an anti-Semite. Stone tried to argue that "his friends" (presumably a direct quote from Brewer) meant Jews in the 50th. Then he iced it off with that little stunt with a swastika.

Naisy Dolar was the direct beneficiary of Stone's tactics. He didn't call her anti-Semitic. And it's ludicrous to argue that Brewer is anti-Semitic. Add in several of Stone's precinct captains telling supporters to tell their friends and family that if they couldn't vote for Stone to vote for Dolar. Stone, for whatever reason, wanted to face Dolar. He choose the April ballot.

Anti-Stone voters played into Berny's hand. Brewer was seen as a wounded candidate, with hints of anti-Semitism around him, by people tired of Stone. Eager to see Stone defeated, they saw no way that Brewer could make headway among the 50th's major voter group. Dolar was an easy alternative. The newspaper endorsements certainly didn't hurt, either. But there's a reason that Stone wanted to face Dolar, if he had to go into a run-off. I don't know what that reason is, but I can see the evidence behind it.

According to lore, no one has ever overcome a 15 percentage point deficit to win a run-off. It's hard to see how Naisy Dolar can buck that trend, especially without money or union backing. You are welcome to explain how, if you like. I'm just trying to look at this race logically.

Daley and Stone's Precinct Captains

There's trouble. Right here in River City. Yep, we've got trouble.

Ald. Stone's biggest problem going into the run-off is that Mayor Daley will not be on the ballot. That doesn't mean that Stone will be pulling down those Daley/Stone signs down anytime soon. What it does mean is that Stone's precinct captains won't be as enthusiastic about working towards the run-off as they were in February.

If you listen to many of Stone's precinct captains, they aren't happy with either the 50th Ward Democratic organization or with Stone's campaign. For many of them, their loyalty lies with Daley, not Stone. (They may be embarrassed by Stone, too!)

Others have personal problems that make doing their job more difficult. Some are just plain new to the job. What Daley brought to the ticket was a fall-back position for many of these precinct captains: while they might not care to help Stone, they did want to help Daley. The Mayor has always depended on big numbers coming from out of the Northside to counter any trouble he might have in the Southside wards.

The question is, can Stone motivate the 50th Ward precinct captains to work as hard for him as they worked for Daley? Can he get them to work hard enough to beat the highly-motivated Dolar precinct captains?

Stone won just a bare majority of precincts (24 out of 45). Several of them (24 in particular) that are typically stronger machine precincts he just barely won. And others (7 and 13, for example) he lost outright.

Berny Stone is looking at his last days as the 50th Ward alderman. We have seen how he acts when he is threatened. But now there is blood in the water. And Stone's support is a lot softer than anyone previously believed.

So When Does Stone Debate Dolar?

Ald. Stone used the spector of four challengers as an excuse for ducking earlier debates. So the question is, when will Stone debate Naisy?

It should be apparent to all that Stone didn't want to sit there with his critics. But his offer to debate his challengers "one on one" offers no excuses. Will Stone debate? Probably not. It's not just that he is scared of talking about his record of neglect and favors. It's not just that Stone doesn't like to be questioned. It's that Stone is getting old. He no longer has the mental facilities that he used to. He's scared.

In a debate, one on one or otherwise, Stone has no where to run. His outrageous comments, those things that embarrass all of us, can be responded to, called for what they are.

Will Stone debate? Probably not. But if he doesn't, we will all know why.

He's a loser. He's vulnerable. Half the voters don't want him around anymore.

Done Deal: Naisy Will Withdraw in Run-off

Several of Ald. Stone's precinct captains are taking the extraordinary step of encouraging voters who cannot support Stone to vote for Naisy Dolar over Greg Brewer. Naisy, they say, is a product of the machine and will withdraw from the race if she and Stone go into a run-off.

"It's a Done Deal."

This seems absurd on its face. Naisy Dolar has run a highly competitive race. But Dolar herself touts the fact that she is connected to the machine. Rumors of her connections to the Hispanic Democratic Organization (HDO of Robert Sorich fame) and Mary Jo Falcon have abounded throughout the ward and web. Her campaign sees her connection to the machine as one its main assets.

The machine has used plant candidates successfully throughout Chicago. In 2006, a machine plant won secondly place over the so-called reform candidate in the Third Congressional District on the southside. Running someone who works on a government payroll, like Naisy did at the time she decided to run, to divide the opposition and dilute the vote against an incumbent is a time-honored tradition in Chicago.

Further, Berny Stone owes his re-election in 1991 to a deal brokered by then-State Senator (and Democratic Committeeman) Howard Carroll. A deal between Stone and Dolar would not be out of character.

But that is speculation. What is not is the fact that Stone precinct captains are encouraging people who cannot support Stone to support Naisy. Where Stone has precinct captains, they are far bigger presence than Naisy supporters in yellow hats.

One final observation: Naisy's supporters haven't been in the Jewish community south of Touhy until the last two weekends. That may suggest that they had conceded the Jewish vote until a deal was set. Greg Brewer supporters had been in Jewish precincts since September.

Regardless of whether Stone and Naisy have struck a deal, Stone's precinct captains are telling people who can't pull the lever for Stone to support Naisy. That tells us that Stone wants to face Naisy, not Brewer, if he has to go into a run-off. For whatever reasons, Brewer is the opponent Stone most fears.

Whether that is because Stone feels like he has a better chance against Naisy in a run-off or a deal has been struck, no one really knows. While it might have seemed unlikely that Naisy would withdraw in any case, her willingness to deceive voters gives us no confidence that she isn't doing so again.

I'm voting for Greg Brewer. We know for a fact that Brewer is not connected to the machine and offers the 50th Ward a truly independent voice. Berny Stone doesn't want me to vote for Greg Brewer. So if you'd like to see Stone defeated, you will vote for Greg, too.