The Horserace

Naisy Dolar supporters can only hope that she is out there raising an incredible amount of money. Because it looks bad. Dolar needs to change the dynamic.

Historically, alderman who get 45-49% (and who's main challenger doesn't) win the run-off. Chicago insiders who look at Ald. Stone's performance think the odds are decidedly in his favor. Stone is helped by three additional factors:

1. The race in the 49th draws the liberal/reformers away from the 50th
2. Twelve run-offs spread the field considerably, increasing competition both for money and volunteers
3. The Mayor is said to "back Stone to the hilt" and he has the cash to do it

The Democratic Club, and its experience with getting votes through absentees, early voting and nursing homes, is another factor likely to play a significant role in how Stone does in this election.

The final factor is something we see here: Stone is trying to make this campaign about Naisy Dolar and whether she is committed to the 50th or qualified to be alderman. Stone's supporters have ample experience in surrounding Stone's opponents with doubt about their character or qualifications. I've mentioned before that most if not all of Stone's former opponents now seem to live elsewhere. That is not a coincidence.

Naisy Dolar faces an uphill climb. Her biggest obstacle is that she didn't come within "striking distance" in February. Her second biggest problem is that most other challengers who gained a run-off did. In the competition for resources, Dolar's performance compared to other challengers in the city makes her a long-shot at best. Only those who are emotionally invested in defeating Stone will get involved.

Signs are that organized labor is not emotionally invested. Dolar probably understood that labor would not back her, even in the run-off, when SEIU asked her to drop out. It can't help that Dolar trumpets her time with the Mayor, who's not exactly in favor with organized labor these days.

While Dolar must be considered a long-shot at this stage, that could change with a quick infusion of cash from the Asian-American community. Her best hope is to change the perception of this race, and the main prospect for doing that is through her pre-election disclosure.

Dolar has generated remarkable publicity for her campaign until now. But she just squeaked into a run-off, and it seems the media will focus on more competitive races. Plus Berny Stone seems every bit as capable of generating publicity as Dolar. Today, the odds favor Stone's re-election. We can only guess right now whether the same will be true in five weeks.