Friday, March 09, 2007

The Horserace

Naisy Dolar supporters can only hope that she is out there raising an incredible amount of money. Because it looks bad. Dolar needs to change the dynamic.

Historically, alderman who get 45-49% (and who's main challenger doesn't) win the run-off. Chicago insiders who look at Ald. Stone's performance think the odds are decidedly in his favor. Stone is helped by three additional factors:

1. The race in the 49th draws the liberal/reformers away from the 50th
2. Twelve run-offs spread the field considerably, increasing competition both for money and volunteers
3. The Mayor is said to "back Stone to the hilt" and he has the cash to do it

The Democratic Club, and its experience with getting votes through absentees, early voting and nursing homes, is another factor likely to play a significant role in how Stone does in this election.

The final factor is something we see here: Stone is trying to make this campaign about Naisy Dolar and whether she is committed to the 50th or qualified to be alderman. Stone's supporters have ample experience in surrounding Stone's opponents with doubt about their character or qualifications. I've mentioned before that most if not all of Stone's former opponents now seem to live elsewhere. That is not a coincidence.

Naisy Dolar faces an uphill climb. Her biggest obstacle is that she didn't come within "striking distance" in February. Her second biggest problem is that most other challengers who gained a run-off did. In the competition for resources, Dolar's performance compared to other challengers in the city makes her a long-shot at best. Only those who are emotionally invested in defeating Stone will get involved.

Signs are that organized labor is not emotionally invested. Dolar probably understood that labor would not back her, even in the run-off, when SEIU asked her to drop out. It can't help that Dolar trumpets her time with the Mayor, who's not exactly in favor with organized labor these days.

While Dolar must be considered a long-shot at this stage, that could change with a quick infusion of cash from the Asian-American community. Her best hope is to change the perception of this race, and the main prospect for doing that is through her pre-election disclosure.

Dolar has generated remarkable publicity for her campaign until now. But she just squeaked into a run-off, and it seems the media will focus on more competitive races. Plus Berny Stone seems every bit as capable of generating publicity as Dolar. Today, the odds favor Stone's re-election. We can only guess right now whether the same will be true in five weeks.

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33 Comments:

At March 09, 2007 8:47 AM, Blogger Hugh said...

> Twelve run-offs spread the field considerably

12 run-offs narrows the field.

 
At March 09, 2007 10:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>12 run-offs narrows the field.

This is nearly three times the average number of run-offs, so I agree with Jay's assessment of Dolar being at the bottom of a fairly wide field. Of course, her main support group is not labor or progressives or good government types, but Asian-Americans. For them, she's still the only game in town.

 
At March 09, 2007 3:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dick Simpson's blogs have suggested that Stone would be defeated in a run-off. I'm hopeful that will happen. We can do better as a ward than Bernard Stone and his fear mongering. I'm confident that Naisy can pull it off!

 
At March 09, 2007 5:19 PM, Anonymous willow9 said...

GO NAISY!!!

 
At March 09, 2007 11:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Read the articles, and see how much money the person in question has donated to Stone. Again, this is all publicly available so posting it is not wrong.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/290047,CST-NWS-DCFS09.article

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/290408,CST-NWS-dside09x.article


Amrish Mahajan
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mutual Bank
6335 N Western

To Democratic Club of the 50th Ward
Bernard L. Stone, Chairman
Ilana Feketitsch, Treasurer

$2,000.00 5/9/2006
$1,000.00 4/27/2006
$2,000.00 6/10/2005
$1,000.00 6/11/2004
$300.00 5/23/2003
$300.00 5/3/2002
$300.00 5/18/2001
$1,500.00 12/13/2002 to Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee

 
At March 10, 2007 12:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Strange to say this but up until know I wasn't planning on voting for anyone in the April run-off. I certainly would not vote for Stone and I couldn't really bring myself to vote for Naisy.

But reading this blog has reminded me it's time to get out of the stone age. So in April I will make sure my family and I go out and vote for Naisy. Let's just hope the Brewer/Aftab voters do the same (and the Stoners stay home).

 
At March 10, 2007 1:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

GO BERNIE !!!!!!

 
At March 10, 2007 8:52 AM, Anonymous willow9 said...

WOW! I just read the two article from the Chicago Sun-Times dated friday, march 9, 2007.

-Couple has ties to governer, Daley, Rezko
-Woman with ties to govs. wife allegedly stole $2.1 mil.

I noticed that their contributions to Stones Democratic Club of the 50th Ward grew quite a bit. I'll be watching this one.

 
At March 10, 2007 5:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just watched the YouTube video of Naisy's election nigh speech. Was her comment about one volunteer hour vs. her opponents paid staff a shot at the Brewer campaign?

If so I will not be voting for her.

 
At March 11, 2007 7:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes it had to be a shot at Brewer I dont think Stone pays his people !! How low can you go. I dont think I can vote for her either.

 
At March 11, 2007 7:38 AM, Anonymous stoneisdaopponent said...

Not Brewer. Not sure how anyone can take her comment as anything but a slam on Stone. Brewer had no more paid staff than Naisy, its Stone that has all the paid staff. Not sure how anyone could take it any other way.

 
At March 11, 2007 8:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Naisy and her supporters have taken a ton of shots at Brewer. For example, go here. Several Brewer voters have been offended by this. The only thing that could win my vote for Naisy would be if she strongly and publicly condemned these attacks on Greg and his supporters.

 
At March 11, 2007 8:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There was a post that Aftab took off without a trace, without paying his people but again Naisy's staff will put the blame on Stone. What else is new? That’s their game. Stone does not have to pay his volunteers.

 
At March 11, 2007 8:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is fun how Bernie Stone can sleep on the job, not do a thing, but when people complain, Stone's not to blame! No wonder Naisy and others want the job. Money for nothing and you get lots of sleep!

Vote for change. Vote for someone who will actually work for their pay. Naisy's our only choice!

 
At March 11, 2007 9:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The ones complaining are for Naisy. I myself am neutral in this an I cannot say I get bad service. Dolars campaign had 1 piece of literature of Stone with his eyes closed during a council recess. Is that a crime? Lets take the ball and run. That's the tactics dolars campaign has to use to try to win election try something else.

 
At March 11, 2007 9:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Naisy is a wanna be !!!

 
At March 11, 2007 10:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just woke up and heard that Naisy Dolar has lost an hour from her campaign. She'll have to work twice as hard now to make up for lost time. I hear Berny Stone may be behind this conspiracy to change all the clocks in the ward just weeks before the election.

 
At March 11, 2007 10:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Our sympathies, Anonymous, for your ignorance. You must be from Indiana.

Daylight Savings Time has been in existance your entire life. It is truly sad that you are only learning about it now. Rest assured that Naisy Dolar and her campaign were aware of DST. Most of the city is. You must be stuck in the Stone Age!

 
At March 11, 2007 10:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fres Flinstone is still around and is a great guy. He was also in the Stone age. LOL

 
At March 11, 2007 10:52 AM, Blogger Jay said...

I would agree that Stone can be seen as a cartoon character!

 
At March 11, 2007 1:57 PM, Anonymous Jim in Chicago said...

Based on my canvassing for Naisy yesterday, I would say Brewer supporters will be out in force for her on April 17. I canvassed one of the same precincts I walked for Brewer in the primary. It was the most ardent Brewer supporters who were most likely to request Dolar window and yard signs.

Both campaigns had a similar message: that it was time the 50th had an alderman who seeks COMMUNITY INPUT in decision making and represents the WHOLE ward, rather than playing different communities against each other.

Viewed this way, the "gap" bewteen Stone's vote and Dolar/Brewer support doesn't look so large to me. Plus, we might be able to get out MORE of the anti-Stone vote on the second round, now that people see he really is vulnerable: During my canvassing in the primary, I had people tell me they didn't see the point since Stone was invincible. He doesn't look so invincible any more!

 
At March 12, 2007 12:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim From Chicago,you admitted on a previous post that you came in to the ward for Brewer,and now you're with Dolar--so -CARPETBAGGING JIM-WHY ARE YOU HERE?PERHAPS THE RADICAL AGENDA OF DFA!REMEMBER THOSE FALSE BREWER PLUSES,NOW THEY'RE FALSE DOLAR PLUSSES--YOU SEE JIM,50TH WARDERS REJECT RADICAL CARPETBAGGERS AND THEIR FRONT CANDIDATES,BUT WE'LL TELL YOU WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR

 
At March 12, 2007 12:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ANYTHING DICK SIMPSON SAYS IS JUST RADICAL KOOL-AID.THIS GREAT PARAGON OF NONSENSE KNEW HE COULD NOT BE RE-ELECTED,EVEN FROM THE OLD 44TH WARD OF 30YRS AGO,SO NOW THIS WHACKO "IDOL" POLLUTES STUDENTS' MINDS WITH LEFT-WING ANTI-AMERICANISM AND RECEIVES A STATE PAYCHECK FOR IT

 
At March 12, 2007 7:15 AM, Blogger Jay said...

It's amusing that the machine can bring in help from other wards, but that's not carpetbagging! Stone can hire kids from Skokie, but that's not carpetbagging, either!

What hypocrites! Stone's cowardice is on display in everything he does or his supporters say!

 
At March 12, 2007 10:41 AM, Blogger Hugh said...

Stone's Carpetbaggers

In the precinct where I poll-watched, Stone's "precinct captain" was a Park District employee from outside the ward. He was there with poll-watching credentials, and he brought an election judge with him.

Stone's election judge admitted he had never had any training and that he had somehow signed up and got this precinct assignment by going downtown to the Board of Elections the day before. He was missing teeth and had shabby clothes. I think he might have been homeless. He never told any of us where he lives. He was in a pickle because the form he had to fill out to get paid for his day asked for a home address to mail the paycheck to. He wrote in "hold for pick-up."

He tried to vote. He looked himself up in the applications binder and feigned surprise when he did not find himself. "There must be some mistake." He never produced an ID. Several times he begged the admin to allow him to vote "provincial." Fortunately the admin would have none of it.

While the rest of us pollwatchers busied ourselves with checking off our lists, Stone's pollwatcher could not be bothered, he a was a busy man. But he didn't trust HIS judge to do his pollwatching for him, either. Several times he tried to give his voter list to one of the OTHER, competent judges, "Here, as people vote, check them off this list," said with authority. Fortunately the judge was experienced and knew this was not her job, and the admin stepped in to stop him.

Stone's judge ducked out for a cigarette and a nip every hour or so. He got drowzier and sloppier as the day went on. By the afternoon he was useless, having trouble holding his head up off the desk. By mid-afternoon he was less than useless, he got in a shouting match with a voter. By late afternoon he left in a huff, shouting "And I better get paid for a full day!"

 
At March 12, 2007 12:00 PM, Blogger Hugh said...

Stone's Carpetbaggers, part II

Stone hired carpetbaggers from OUTSIDE THE WARD!

Terry Grainger Inc.
Phil Molfese, President
1965 W. Pershing Road 3rd fl.
Chicago, IL 60609

DBA Dependable Consulting
P.O. Box 5671
Chicago, IL 60680

$1,250.00 7/28/2006
$4,000.00 10/4/2006
$4,000.00 11/14/2006

$9,250 TOTAL

Offices on the near SW side near Damen & 39th in the 12TH WARD!

These same carpetbaggers also worked for DOROTHY BROWN for Mayor! They are RADICAL CARPETBAGGERS!

Source

Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee D-2 Semi-Annual Report from 7/1/2006 to 12/31/2006

 
At March 12, 2007 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Talk about carpet bagging, Dolar brings in out of state congressman to stump for her? She can not even find a person in the same STATE as her to endorse her campaign and look at where all of her money comes from, it is from people who are outside of the ward.

 
At March 12, 2007 1:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I gave money to Dolar and I live in the ward.

 
At March 12, 2007 2:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Hugh et.al.:

Naisy was desparately looking for hired pct. walkers at the end of the campaign.

She ran an ad in Craigslist asking for people to do this for $10 hr. and to provide their own transportation to the 50th ward.

Just go to Craigslist Chicago. The jobs section/ ETC category and type in "political to the search field.

Her ad on 2/17 comes up big as life.

Did these "volunteers" have to pay for their own yellow caps or were uniforms included with the hourly wage?

 
At March 12, 2007 3:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you give money to dolar to pay for the ad to Craigslist Chicago, or was it to pay for the $10 hr hired pct. walkers?? Maybe you could have paid for the ad yourself and dolar wouldnt have declared it.LOL

 
At March 12, 2007 11:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Willow9
Your a big supporter of dolar. I havnt seen your donation on dolars d2. She sure is going to need the cash!!

 
At March 12, 2007 11:43 PM, Anonymous anonymost said...

1. You don't have to pay for Craigslist ads. Craigslist is free to post on.

2. Craigslist is not some "dumpster" of classified ads as has been implied. Some of the people most likely to get involved in politics look around on Craigslist.

2. Posting an ad for paid canvassers is desperation only in some conspiracy theorist's head. Rather, posting an ad means you have extra money from successful fundraising, and since you can never have enough canvassers and pollwatchers, you might as well pay to have a few more than would volunteer.

 
At March 13, 2007 7:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That would be the case fore a newcomer. Someone with no support. If you have support you have a army. you dont have to put an ad in Craigslist

 

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