Wednesday, April 11, 2007

He Said What?

So the Mayor and a number of incumbents in the run-off meet. And the Mayor says, "I don't know why people think I have a PAC. What's this PAC everyone says I got?" I'm paraphrasing. Obviously the Mayor is doing a little sidestep here. If you've watched the Mayor at all, you can even visualize his gestures, because they are very familiar.

Then Ald. Stone chimes in: "You know. Terry just gave me a check for $10,000."

Everyone in the room groaned.

That's our Berny. Embarrassing the Mayor, embarrassing the city. Good Old Berny. You can add to that an overconfident Berny. 52% he predicts. The machine will deliver on Tuesday. It's been a tougher race than he had hoped for, but he'll get 52%. His campaign is coming together now. Naisy Dolar, a confident notes, needs at least 1,000 new voters to even have a chance. That is somehow related to the number of absentees Berny is supposed to have come in. You and I, though, have heard that tune before.

I don't pretend to know how this race will turn out. It's hard to bet against Stone because he got 5,000 votes. I'd expect that if he turned out 5,000 votes again, he wins. But I also don't think Jan Schakowsky would back a loser. She must know something I don't in this race.

It is interesting to see commenters try to spin the No Debate decision. We all have our sides. But no matter what you think about this race, Naisy Dolar refused to participate in the only candidate's forum that Ald. Stone was going to do. Trying to compare an appearance on Chicago Tonight to a debate in the neighborhood is silly. Choosing not to participate is a gamble.

If you asked me, and since it's my blog, I'm assuming you did, I don't think that Stone or his campaign could have pulled off a two-party debate. I would have wanted him to focus all his campaign's energies on trying to do so, with only five days left before election day. I would have invited every bit of media out there, and videotaped the whole thing to put up on youtube. Dolar didn't have to do anything, and she could have forced the Stone campaign to spin its wheels in the last week before the election. Meanwhile, her campaign could continue to go after their pluses, with the field virtually to themselves. (No, I don't think Berny Stone can chew gum and walk at the same time.)

But she didn't wanna. Now there's some fast thinking. In the end, it's the neighborhood that loses, because we will never get to see the two of them side-by-side. If Dolar was right to skip this debate, then no one can fault Stone for skipping the Boone School debate. The WRPCO doesn't even register in my half of the ward.

If Dolar loses, as Stone thinks she will, you can point to this decision as an indicator of her forth-coming loss. If she wins, then she should be grateful for the advise she got. They will have been right.

Only the neighborhood will have suffered.

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19 Comments:

At April 11, 2007 8:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

now there is a textbook example of cognitive dissonance. Do you really believe that nonsense ?you must be in a duel with Hugh to see who can out do each other in wild assumptions. Those in the know say the Stone Campaign is humming on ALL CYLINDERS and will continue to hum until Tuesday's VICTORY is HISTORY.

 
At April 11, 2007 9:11 PM, Anonymous p.t. baer said...

Jan Schakowsky is doing SEIU-paid robocalls for Naisy. Seems like something that could actually make a difference.

 
At April 11, 2007 9:17 PM, Anonymous Malik said...

Jay-

This is not a debate. Stone picked the venue, Stone picked the moderator, Stone picked the sponsors. You can try to draw a parallel to the Boone School debate but there is non.

This debate has no credibility and you know it.

 
At April 11, 2007 9:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

p.t. baer said...
Jan Schakowsky is doing SEIU-paid robocalls for Naisy. Seems like something that could actually make a difference.

April 11, 2007 9:11 PM

yes a difference in At&T profits

 
At April 11, 2007 9:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Malik said...
Jay-

This is not a debate. Stone picked the venue, Stone picked the moderator, Stone picked the sponsors. You can try to draw a parallel to the Boone School debate but there is non.

This debate has no credibility and you know it.

April 11, 2007 9:17 PM

No more credibility than the Boone School Daisy pep rally but you dont know it or wont know it but you will see it on April 18 when Stone is re-elected.

 
At April 11, 2007 9:43 PM, Anonymous p.t. baer said...

mailk said, "This debate has no credibility and you know it."

Of course it's not a real debate in the sense of being fair and impartial, but it is a chance to watch two real live candidates deal with each other in person, in real time, not through surrogates or campaign literature. If you can for a minute stop trying to make this fit the rules of your high school debate club, you'll see that any test of a candidate is a good one and may yield interesting results.

 
At April 11, 2007 10:17 PM, Blogger Jay said...

I don't think "those in the know" live in the 50th Ward. They certainly don't read this blog. I will agree that the Stone campaign is much improved since outside forces came in to help the alderman.

 
At April 11, 2007 10:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Naisy can't show up at a debate, how is she supposed to survive in City Council????

 
At April 11, 2007 11:05 PM, Anonymous p.t. baer said...

jay said, "the Stone campaign is much improved"

It's night and day compared to the first time around. You should devote a separate post to campaign lit. The Stone mailing I received the other day slamming Naisy for her SEIU support was a brilliant piece of bullshit. They must have brought in ol' Burt Natarus to consult on the hyperbole: "Naisy Dolar SUPPORTS a 7 BILLION DOLLAR Tax Increase."

$7 billion! I can't afford that. I'd better vote for Stone.

 
At April 11, 2007 11:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jay
I will tell you this Jan Schakowsky is just looking to take control of the north side, and backing Dolar Hoping she might win is a plus for her if dolar can pull it off.Its a LONG shot

 
At April 11, 2007 11:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ah, I think you've solved the mystery about Jan's involvement. Wasn't her campaign manager head of the union or something like that?

I've found the SEIU material very unpersuasive. I'm sure they could dig up more on Berny Stone than the same tired 3-4 points they keep repeating. After all, 34 years is a long time.

 
At April 12, 2007 7:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who is running stones campaign, I hear the the has lost its captain

 
At April 12, 2007 7:55 AM, Anonymous Malik said...

Anon 7:29 AM

I have heard the same, that Noonan left the Stone camp last week and is now working for Vi Daley. I have also heard that despite the impressive display on Tuesday night, Mayor Daley has pulled his troops out of the 50th ward.

If true, there will be those that spin this as Stone being that far ahead, but to me it sounds like Daley is cutting his loses.

Jay if you want to break some news, check on that.

 
At April 12, 2007 9:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

is that why the pac only gave berny 10k whereas some other incumbents had much more? i think berny received the least amount out of all incumbents.

 
At April 12, 2007 10:21 AM, Blogger Hugh said...

> No more credibility than the Boone School

WRPCO, the sponsor of the debates at the Boone School, was not a Dolar campaign contributor.

PAK AMERICAN BUSINESS ASSOCIATION, INC.
(since 2004)

Old business name
PAKISTANI BUSINESS ASSOCIATION OF CHICAGO, INC.

Agent Name
ABDUL WAHID BUTT (since 12/26/2003)

Agent Street Address
62XX N CALIFORNIA AVE STE 104

Sabri Nihari Inc.
Abdul Wahid Butt, owner
2511 W. Devon Ave.
Chicago, IL 60659

to Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee

$1,000.00 12/18/2006
$1,000.00 6/11/2002

$2,000.00 total

to Democratic Club of the 50th Ward
Bernard L. Stone, Chairman
Ilana Feketitsch, Treasurer

$1,000.00 6/7/2005
$1,000.00 6/15/2004

$2,000.00 total

Sindhu, Shaukat
XXX N Elmhurst Rd
Prospect Heights, IL 60070-1502
Occupation: Chairman
Employer: Pakistani American Association

to Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee

$2,000.00 2/1/2007
$250.00 5/6/2003
$1,000.00 2/28/2003
$500.00 6/25/2002
$1,000.00 7/13/2000

$4750 total

More...

IL SOS Corporate/LLC Search

Illinois State Board of Elections Campaign Disclosure

Restaurateur plans to rebuild after fire

Stone: Availability of $50K public subsidies, fire a coincidence

 
At April 12, 2007 10:26 AM, Blogger Hugh said...

> ... the Mayor says, "I don't know why people think I have a PAC. What's this PAC everyone says I got?"

> ... Ald. Stone chimes in: "You know. Terry [Peterson, Daley campaign mgr] just gave me a check for $10,000."

First C D Victory PAC

$10,000.00 4/5/2007
to Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee

 
At April 12, 2007 10:32 AM, Blogger Jay said...

I don't think anyone has argued that tonight's debate is impartial. Providing evidence in support of the consensus opinion proves nothing. Since no one knows much about this new community organization, it's unlikely that they could have contributed thousands of dollars to Dolar.

But that doesn't make them impartial. My own assessment of their partiality is based upon their behavior and Dolar's association with them.

 
At April 12, 2007 10:43 AM, Blogger Hugh said...

Our Fair City's pathetic ethics laws cap political contributions from companies doing business with the City at $1500 every 6 months. Zoning changes, building permits, and business licenses are considered "business before the City."

But if a PAC gives to a candidate, and a then a business gives to a PAC, it's all good.

$1,500.00 2/26/2007
Walgreen's to
Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee

$10,000.00 4/5/2007
First C D Victory PAC to
Bernard L Stone Campaign Committee

$10,000.00 4/10/2007
Walgreen's to
First C D Victory PAC

More...

Illinois State Board of Elections Campaign Disclosure

Stone Chief of Staff Floats Secret Walgreens Plan

Walgreen's for Western & Lunt, other secret projects in the works

More Leaks on the Walgreen's Secret Deal

 
At April 12, 2007 11:20 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Got a chuckle on Hugh's commentary on WRPCO. Here's what he had to say a while back: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/wrogerspk/message/843

Questions for West Rogers Park Community Organization


Hello,

I am a neighbor and I am considering joining the West Rogers Park
Community Organization. I have some questions. Guidestar and other
organizations recommend we ask these simple questions before giving,
and further recommend that if we CANNOT get answers to these simple
questions, that we NOT GIVE.

I'm sorry if you think asking simple questions is bullying, but maybe
if you do, I have my answer.

Here are my questions, interspersed with the some of the questions
from Guidestar.org. I would appreciate a response from anyone who
knows anything. Thanks!

3. Search the GuideStar database to find charities that meet your
criteria.

WRPCO not listed with Guidestar.

4. Focus on the mission.

WRPCO: no mission statement.

6. Verify a charity's legitimacy.

WRPCO not listed with IRS.

IRS confirms WRPCO is not a regsitered charity.

* If the charity is not on GuideStar, ask to see its letter
of determination.

Can I please get a copy of WRPCO's letter of determination from the IRS?

Does WRPCO have a taxpayer ID?

Is WRPCO a not-for-profit?

How much are dues?

Are my dues tax deductible?

7. Get the cold, hard facts. A reputable organization will:
* Define its mission and programs clearly.

WRPCO: no mission statement.

9. Avoid charities that won't share information or pressure you.
Reputable nonprofits:
* Will discuss their programs and finances.
* Are willing to send you literature about their work or
direct you to a Web site.

WRPCO: no web site.

WRPCO: unwilling to discuss finances

How many members do you have?

Does WRPCO have a board of directors?

How are the dues spent?

What organizations has WRPCO distributed funds to and how much?

If you still have doubts about a charity, don't contribute to it.

Thanks again!

 

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