Organization and Benchmarks

Yahoo News pointed to this article from the Washington Post. It looks at the influence of Saul Alinksky and community organizing in the Presidential ambitions of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The article itself is uninteresting. But it discusses something I had been thinking about since the beginning of this campaign. Will the community organizing model work in Chicago politics?

One of the reasons I became disenchanted with Naisy Dolar last summer was over this issue. Her emphasis, it seemed to me, was on organizing rather than beating Ald. Stone. I agree that our neighborhoods aren't organized. But voters could credit Dolar with organizing the neighborhoods and still vote to re-elect Berny Stone. Would they see the link that the organizers wanted them to see? Would it overcome the advantages that Stone has in name recognition, precinct organization and voter contact? These were questions I could not answer, and probably never can.

The Dolar strategy dovetails nicely with the new community organization. And there's no doubt that the 50th Ward is perhaps the worst organized in terms of community groups and neighborhood organizations with the ability to communicate their needs and concerns to city government. But the question is, can you win this way?

I wonder if this is the reason for the Runoff Predictions in the most recent post on Aldertrack. "AlderTrack: 'It's too early to call either the 49th or 50th. Both incumbents may be in trouble here, Ald. Stone more so than Ald. Moore. Check back the week before election day.'" Ten days ago it seemed to be predicting that Stone would lose.

One thing that has become obvious is that the run-offs will be closer than people imagine. Conventional Wisdom says that turnout is lower in run-off elections, and this is sometimes true. But turnout has also increased in run-offs. It depends on how much media attention the race draws.

Which comes back to the benchmarks. I've tried to pay attention to a couple of benchmarks to provide some insight into this race, notably whether the Mayor (and his supporters) would strongly support Ald. Stone and whether Asian-American money flowed into Dolar's coffers and she got the Union backing she expected. Greg Brewer points out that Stone is now following the Mayor's message for incumbents in the run-off (basically, 'I've heard your concerns and am now prepared to address them in full.' It's an open question whether Stone can be believed in terms of this message.). Dolar's disclosures demonstrate that she intends to be a player in this race. There is general agreement that the race has narrowed considerably.

One reason why I was interested in whether Stone was getting the Mayor's full support was because, if Dolar did not get the endorsements of SEIU or the CFL, then Stone would be the only one who had Union mail sent out on his behalf. Terry Peterson, the Mayor's campaign manager, has been facilitating a PAC of the Mayor's supporters, including several unions, who are supposed to be mailing into several wards. Without SEIU or the CFL mailing on behalf of Dolar, voters may reasonably conclude that the Unions are now supporting Stone. Some of them are.

Advantage: Ald. Stone.